The recent trading days in the precious metals sector have been marked by exciting developments that are of great interest to private investors. The central question is whether a significant price shock in the gold price is imminent.
Current Market Situation
The current gold price on June 8, 2025, is about $3,309.72 per troy ounce. After reaching a peak of just under $3,500 on April 22, 2025, the price has corrected itself in recent weeks and is now moving within a trading range between approximately $3,280 and $3,340. Technical analysis indicates a medium-term downward trend, with important supports at around $3,289 (previous week’s low) and the March high of about $3,127.
Forecasts for the Future
Short-term:
Weakness is expected in the coming days, especially after the weak week close of the previous week. The next resistances are around $3,403 (previous week’s high) and the all-time high close to the $3,500 mark.
Medium-term until year-end:
Most analysts forecast an increase in the gold value in 2025 to an average of about $3,357 to a maximum of around $3,720 per troy ounce – depending on whether viewed optimistically or conservatively. Conservative estimates suggest a possible drop to about $3,077 before the end of the year. Overall, however, a moderately positive trend with low volatility is expected; especially July and August could show stronger dynamics, while September may bring a brief weakening – after which a rise is expected again until the year-end.
Long-term:
For the years ahead, depending on the analyst, positive prospects are still seen: By the end of December, the price could potentially rise to around $4,000 according to forecasts, but more realistic assessments foresee values around $3,350–3,700 by the year’s end; long-term forecasts even extend up to $10,000 per ounce by mid-century – though much uncertainty remains due to macroeconomic factors like interest rates, inflation, or geopolitical developments.
Influencing Factors
- Economic Data: Important economic data such as the consumer price index in the USA and labor market data are upcoming – these can trigger short-term movements.
- Technical Indicators: Currently, gold is in a medium-term downward trend within a longer-term upward trend.
- Macroeconomics: Low interest rates or uncertainties in the financial markets traditionally favor rising gold prices.
Conclusion: Is a Major Price Shock Approaching?
A “major price shock” is not immediately expected: Most analysts forecast moderate price increases with occasional corrections within a stable upward trend spread throughout the year. Short-term weakness may continue; however, the sentiment remains positive medium- to long-term. Private investors should not necessarily expect a sudden price surge – but rather a solid overall performance of their investments in precious metals over extended periods.