Background and Current Situation
- Resumption of Talks: On June 9, 2025, high-ranking representatives from China and the USA will meet in London to de-escalate the trade war. The talks follow a phone call between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping last week.
- Central Topics: The focus is on tariffs, retaliatory tariffs, as well as export controls for rare earths and cutting-edge technologies. Both sides accuse each other of breaking an agreement made in May, which stated that tariffs should be temporarily lowered.
- Delegations: The US delegation will be led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer; China is sending Vice Premier He Lifeng to London.
Market Reaction
- Cautious Attitude: Markets are showing restraint at the beginning of the week. Investors are waiting to see how the negotiations will progress.
- Potential Impacts: A successful conclusion could trigger new enthusiasm in the global stock market – particularly for companies with a strong dependence on bilateral trade or technology companies.
- Risks of Failure: Should there be no progress or even further escalation (e.g., new tariffs), increased volatility in the markets and negative effects on sectors such as the semiconductor industry or raw material exporters are looming.
Other Relevant Aspects
- Rare Earths: China has already granted some export licenses for rare earths – a signal for de-escalation of the conflict. These raw materials are essential for many high-technology products.
- Technology Exports: US restrictions on the sale of chip design software to China remain a point of contention; similarly, Washington criticizes Chinese export controls on rare earths.
- Long-term Significance: The outcomes of these talks could not only influence short-term market movements but also shape the long-term investment climate between the two countries.
Summary
The markets are initially reacting cautiously to the resumption of US-Chinese trade talks in London. Investors hope for a de-escalation of the conflict surrounding tariffs and technology exports, as well as a normalization of access to essential raw materials like rare earths. If this does not succeed, further uncertainties threaten the financial markets – especially in the technology sector and in raw material-dependent industries.