The recent market development of the DAX, particularly the escalating conflict in the Middle East due to Israel’s attack on Iran, has negatively impacted the German stock market. The DAX fell by 1.31% in early trading, reflecting the uncertainty and heightened risks in the global economy. This development forces private investors and small investors to reassess their investments.
Background and Current Market Situation
- DAX Development: The DAX had recently performed positively, reaching a level of 23,997.48 points in May 2025, about 1,500 points higher than at the end of 2024. However, this upward movement has been hindered by geopolitical tensions.
- Technical Analysis: The DAX is in a long-term upward trend. Following a peak on June 5, 2025, there was a technical correction with a fall below the lower Bollinger band. Despite this oversold market situation, the buy signals of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages remain intact, indicating a potential continuation of the trend.
- Support Level: An important support point is at 23,271 points. If the index sustainably falls below this level, the long scenario may become invalid.
Impact on Investors
The current market situation significantly affects private investors and small investors:
- Risk Management: Adjustments in risk management and possible portfolio diversification are necessary to minimize the impacts of geopolitical tensions.
- Investment Decisions: The uncertainty leads to caution in investment decisions; safe investments and less volatile markets are preferred.
- Leveraged Products: For speculative investors, leveraged products might be interesting to profit from price movements, although they come with high risks.
Forecasts and Expectations
- Short-term Forecasts: Statistically, there is a 62% probability that the DAX will rise by about 2% after a new low within the next 10 trading days.
- Long-term Perspective: Despite short-term fluctuations, the DAX remains in a long-term upward trend; strategic long-term investments are advisable.
In summary, the DAX reacts to geopolitical tensions with short-term fluctuations. Investors should act cautiously and adjust their strategies.