The recent escalation between Israel and Iran has significant implications for the global economy, particularly concerning global energy supply and financial markets. Here are the key aspects:
Background of the Conflict
On June 13, 2025, Israel conducted a large-scale airstrike on Iranian military and nuclear facilities, including the Natanz nuclear site. The objective was to halt Iran’s nuclear program. In response, Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks, which were intercepted outside of Israeli territory.
Economic Impacts
The conflict significantly affects global markets. Oil prices spiked abruptly by up to twelve percent, as the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil supply route, is potentially at risk. Additionally, stock markets worldwide reacted with declines; the DAX fell by about 1.4 percent. These uncertainties also affect other commodity markets, as the Middle East plays a central role in global trade.
Possible Far-Reaching Consequences
A blockade or disruption of oil supplies via the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a global energy shortage and further drive prices up. There is also a risk of further destabilization of the global economy, as trade flows and investments could be affected. Consequently, the international community, including the US, is working to de-escalate the situation.
Warnings and Forecasts
Dirk Jandura, President of Foreign Trade, warns of possible far-reaching economic consequences, particularly regarding global energy supply and markets. Market analysts are also observing increased volatility, complicating long-term investment planning.