The current resilience of the stock markets is a central topic for private investors, as it reflects both opportunities and risks for investment decisions. The reasons for this extraordinary resilience are varied and can be summarized as follows:
Reasons for the Resilience of the Stock Markets
1. Familiarity with Shocks and Uncertainties
The markets have weathered a variety of shocks in recent years – including the pandemic, inflation, interest rate rises, and geopolitical tensions. This experience has led investors to be better prepared for new crises and to react less panickily. The sheer number of challenges already overcome strengthens confidence in market mechanisms.
2. Solid Fundamental Data
Particularly in the USA, a robust economic dynamic is evident: GDP growth has been about 3% since the third quarter of 2023, while inflation has steadily decreased – from 9% in 2022 to around 2.5% in early to mid-2024. This combination of growth and moderate inflation supports corporate profits and thus stock prices.
3. Optimistic Earnings Forecasts
High earnings growth rates are still expected for 2025 – particularly in US companies with forecasts of around 15%. This contributes to the positive sentiment in the markets.
4. Attractive Returns in the Bond Market
Fixed-income investments also currently offer attractive returns, providing investors with additional security. At the same time, many central banks are lowering interest rates again or at least signaling this for the near future.
5. Selective Investment Behavior
Investors are increasingly taking a selective approach: not all markets benefit equally from the recovery; rather, the targeted selection of individual securities determines the success of the investment. Particularly US stocks are showing resilience to rising long-term interest rates – a phenomenon that was previously rather rare.
Challenges and Risks
Despite all the resilience, numerous uncertainty factors remain:
- Geopolitical Tensions: Conflicts such as trade disputes or political instability can lead to new turbulence at any time.
- Interest Rate Development: The strong rise in long-term interest rates (10-year US government bonds above 4.5%, even up to over 5% for thirty-year maturities) traditionally poses a strain – however, many markets have so far shown indifference to this.
- National Debt: New budget plans in the USA are causing discussions about the sustainability of public finances.
- Market Valuations: The idea of an “endless” rally is increasingly being questioned; further price increases in the double digits are considered unlikely without additional positive surprises.
Conclusion
The resilience of the stock markets is based on a combination of experience with crises, solid economic growth, and optimistic corporate forecasts. At the same time, the environment remains challenging: geopolitical uncertainties and rising interest rates could lead to new corrections at any time. For private investors, this means that targeted selection remains crucial for sustainable investment success.