Background and Expectations
The upcoming interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve on June 18, 2025, is the focus of market analyses. The probability of a rate pause at this meeting is estimated at 99.9%. This suggests that the Fed is likely to keep the key interest rate unchanged. The current target range for the key interest rate is between 4.25 and 4.50 percent. Current economic indicators show that the US economy is exhibiting solid growth rates, the unemployment rate remains low, and inflation is slightly elevated.
Possible Impact on Interest Rates and Stock Markets
Interest Rates
A rate pause could lead to stability in the interest markets, as clear expectations exist and no major surprises are anticipated. This decision by the Fed will also have long-term effects on the interest rate curve, as it influences expectations for future rate adjustments.
Stock Markets
For the stock markets, a rate pause could be positive, as it indicates further liquidity and favorable financing conditions. However, despite clear expectations, there may be short-term market volatility, especially if the Fed makes unexpected announcements regarding future monetary policy.
Strategies for Investors
Investors should diversify their portfolios to minimize risks. Moreover, it is advisable to adjust investment strategies to the Fed’s monetary policy decisions in order to seize opportunities and avoid risks. A long-term perspective can help endure short-term market fluctuations and benefit from stable economic trends.
Overall, the Fed’s interest rate decision on June 18, 2025, is unlikely to bring major surprises, but the communication regarding future monetary policy should be closely monitored, as it could influence the market.