The competition between Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk in the field of diabetes and obesity therapies is of central importance to investors in the healthcare sector. Both companies dominate the market for GLP-1 receptor agonists, which are used for the treatment of type 2 diabetes as well as weight reduction. However, recent developments show a dynamic shift in the balance of power.
Market Overview and Product Portfolio
Novo Nordisk relies on the active ingredients Semaglutide (Ozempic, Wegovy, Rybelsus) and has secured a significant market share in recent years. In 2024, the semaglutide market was estimated at $28.43 billion and is expected to grow to around $93.6 billion by 2035. According to recent reports, Novo Nordisk still holds about 62% of the GLP-1 market.
Eli Lilly scores with the active ingredient Tirzepatide (Mounjaro for diabetes, Zepbound for obesity) as well as a promising pipeline including Retatrutide (a triple agonist), which is expected to be approved by 2026. Eli Lilly recorded a revenue growth of 45% in the first quarter of 2025, surpassing $12 billion – driven by strong Mounjaro sales.
Strategic Changes and Innovations
While Novo Nordisk continues to invest heavily in clinical studies – such as with new Phase III trials for amylin-based medications against obesity – Eli Lilly appears more innovative in developing new classes of active ingredients like triple agonists. These could significantly exceed the effectiveness of existing therapies.
Novo Nordisk is also facing challenges such as supply shortages of Ozempic/Wegovy and potential competition from generics or oral alternatives to injectable formulations. In contrast, Eli Lilly benefits from a clear pipeline strategy and operational resilience.
Financial Figures and Stock Performance
| Metric | Novo Nordisk | Eli Lilly |
|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio (2025) | ~19.8 | ~62.3 |
| Revenue Growth (2025) | +13–21% | +32% |
| Stock Performance | -8% since BMO Report | +14.5% |
Eli Lilly’s stock is valued significantly higher than that of Novo Nordisk – a sign that investors see more potential for innovation in the company.
Conclusion: Is Novo Out of the Game?
No, Novo Nordisk’s stock is by no means “out of the game”. The company remains a global market leader in the GLP-1 therapies with a stable growth path. However, Eli Lilly currently leads in terms of innovation power, pipeline quality, and revenue growth. Analysts see particularly strong potential for further stock gains due to the upcoming approval of triple agonists at Eli Lilly – while Novo faces risks like supply shortages or competition from generics that could weigh heavily.
For investors, this means: Those who are betting on innovation or looking for short-term returns may lean more towards Eli Lilly; those who prefer stable long-term dividend streams or believe in established therapy markets are well served with Novo as well.
Investment Thesis:
“Buy the Leader” currently applies more to Eli Lilly; “Back the Innovator” also clearly favors the US company. Nevertheless, the duopoly of both firms remains a defining element in the market.