Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Prices
- Conflict between Israel and Iran: The recent conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a significant increase in oil prices. On June 13, oil prices rose by 13% and reached a five-month high after Israel attacked Iran.
- Oil Price Rally: In recent days, oil prices have continued to recover. Brent increased by over 3%, while WTI gained 3.4% and approached a five-month high.
Market Reactions
- Market Volatility: The geopolitical tensions have not only affected the oil market but have also increased overall market volatility. The S&P 500 experienced a sharp drop before recovering, and the US dollar fell to a three-year low against other currencies.
- Reactions to Tariffs and Trade Conflicts: In addition to geopolitical tensions, trade conflicts, particularly US tariffs, are also impacting the markets. China has responded with countermeasures, further increasing uncertainty.
Outlook
- Uncertainty and Risk Appetite: Due to ongoing uncertainty, many investors are reducing their risk and increasingly investing in safe assets like short-term US Treasuries. Risk appetite may increase again once clarity about the political situation is achieved.
- Long-term Perspectives: Despite the current challenges, US stock markets are expected to regain their leadership position in the long term, supported by technological advancements such as artificial intelligence.
In summary, the oil market is under significant pressure from geopolitical tensions, leading to price increases. Overall market volatility remains high, and investors are cautious until uncertainty subsides.