Influencing Factors on the Current Market
The current market developments in the field of oil and gas stocks show a clear rally mode, which is of high relevance for private investors and small investors. This rally is primarily fueled by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly the war between Israel and Iran.
Geopolitical Tensions and Their Effects
The conflict between Israel and Iran leads to an increase in oil and gas prices due to various supply constraints: The potential destruction of production sites and logistics facilities in Iran could restrict supply; moreover, Iran controls the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about one-fifth of the world’s traded oil as well as about one-third of LNG traffic. These factors drive prices up and thus lead to rising shares in oil and gas stocks.
Seasonal and Other Influences
Additionally, a seasonal factor plays a role: historically, prices for “black gold” rise from July to September, providing further momentum for these stocks. Despite the increasing importance of renewable energy sources in some companies, the correlation between oil price movements and stock prices in this sector remains very strong.
Opportunities and Risks for Investors
For private investors, this means opportunities but also risks: The strong dependence on the geopolitical environment can lead to high volatility. If the conflict in the Middle East escalates or expands further, persistently high oil prices may bring short-term profits, but in the long term, they could also increase inflationary pressure and thus burden other market segments.
Moreover, the EU plans to halt Russian oil and gas imports starting at the end of 2027, which could also affect supply in the energy market in the medium term. Overall, oil and gas stocks are currently in high demand due to a combination of geopolitical tensions, supply risks, and seasonal effects.