Background of the Conflict
The current conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated in recent weeks. On June 13, Israel attacked Iranian territory to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program. Iran responded with rocket and drone attacks. This escalation has already caused damage to oil and gas facilities and could continue to affect global energy supply.
Possible Scenarios of an Oil Price Crisis
Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
Iran might attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz, meaning that tankers can no longer transport safely through this critical shipping route. This could lead to a significant disruption in oil supply, as about two-thirds of Saudi oil exports pass through this route.
Attack on Saudi Arabia
If Iran has difficulty reaching Israel with rocket attacks, it might instead target Saudi Arabia. Such an attack would heavily impact global oil supply and lead to a significant price increase.
Disruption of Iranian Oil Production
Although Iran is no longer among the largest oil producers and its exports are heavily sanctioned, a failure in Iranian oil production could cause a shock in the market. Especially China, which currently imports 90% of Iranian oil, could be affected.
Impacts on Global Markets
An oil price crisis would have significant effects on global markets. Higher oil prices could lead to inflation, increased production costs, and a general economic slowdown. Investors in the German-speaking region and worldwide would need to prepare for potential market volatility and adjust their investment strategies accordingly.
Summary
Adam Tooze emphasizes that the risk of an oil price crisis due to the Iran-Israel conflict is real, although so far, there have been no significant price jumps. However, a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or an attack on Saudi Arabia could lead to an extreme escalation that would severely impact the global oil market.