Oil Price Development: Brent and WTI
The current situation in the oil markets is characterized by high volatility and key technical levels that are crucial for investors, particularly for stocks like Shell.
Brent oil has reached the psychologically important level of 70 US dollars per barrel. This threshold is considered resistance as it often signals a trend reversal or at least a consolidation. The recent price fluctuations have been triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (e.g., the conflict between Israel and Iran).
WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is also showing significant fluctuations. In June, prices peaked at around 73 USD, followed by setbacks to below 60 USD. Currently, the price is around 66–67 USD per barrel.
Forecasts and Influencing Factors
Volatility and Demand
The markets remain volatile, driven by supply surplus, weaker demand forecasts, and political uncertainties. Analysts expect further declines in oil prices for the second half of 2025. Goldman Sachs predicts an average price of 63 USD for Brent, around 59 USD for WTI in 2025, and only about 55 USD in the following year.
Impact of OPEC+ Policy
Decisions by OPEC+ regarding production levels have a significant impact on price development. If OPEC+ loosens or completely lifts production restrictions, prices could drop significantly—according to Goldman Sachs, even below 40 USD per barrel.
Geopolitical Risks
Events such as conflicts in the Middle East can lead to sharp price spikes in the short term but tend to stabilize quickly after the end of escalations.
Impact on Shell Stock
Shell tends to benefit from rising oil prices—especially when these remain stable or increase over extended periods. Since Brent is currently fluctuating around the important level of 70 US dollars and WTI is also testing important resistance levels, this can provide positive impulses for Shell:
- Price Recovery: After phases of decline, breaking through these resistances can lead to further price recovery.
- Investor Sentiment: Positive signals in the commodity market strengthen confidence in energy stocks.
- Profit Outlook: Higher crude oil prices directly improve the margins of large oil companies like Shell.
The current developments in the oil market are characterized by high volatility with important technical levels at Brent (70 US dollars) and WTI (around 65–67 US dollars). Forecasts indicate that prices will continue to be volatile or slightly declining—depending on the supply/demand ratio and geopolitical events. For investors in energy stocks like Shell, these movements are particularly relevant: Breaking through important resistances can trigger new buying impulses; at the same time, the risk of further corrections remains.
Thus, Shell is once again ‘on top’ as long as the market stays above these critical levels or even moves beyond them—especially against the backdrop of possible positive impulses from geopolitical situations or OPEC+ decisions.