The platinum future at NYMEX is currently experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by several factors. Last week, the price rose by over 4% and reached around $1,472 per ounce, near the yearly high.
Main Reasons for the Upward Trend
- Tariffs and Geopolitical Tensions: The announcement of additional tariffs by the U.S., including 35% on Canadian imports starting in August, as well as protectionist measures against other trading partners, are increasing inflation fears. This strengthens platinum as a crisis-resistant investment.
- Supply Deficit: The World Platinum Investment Council expects the third consecutive supply deficit. The recovery of automotive production and rising industrial demand, particularly from China, is further boosting demand.
- Relative Undervaluation Compared to Gold: The gold-platinum ratio fell from 3.6 in April to about 2.4. This development signals a relative undervaluation of platinum and increasingly attracts investors.
Additionally, the market shows strong long positioning from speculative investors with over 25,000 net long contracts, which further supports the momentum. Technically, the trend remains intact as long as platinum trades above about $1,350; surpassing the previous weekly high could trigger additional purchases.
What Does This Mean for Investors?
- Attractive opportunities in the commodity market are emerging, characterized by the stable upward trend.
- The combination of fundamental shortages and geopolitical uncertainties makes platinum an interesting crisis hedging instrument.
- The current market environment offers potential for further price gains in the medium term.
Analysts expect this trend to continue, with forecasts predicting a rise in the platinum price to up to $1,600 within a year.
Conclusion: The upward trend in platinum is significantly driven by tariffs and a structural supply deficit—important indications of investment opportunities for investors.