The recent record rally of the DAX could be tested in the coming week by US tariffs and important price data. Experts from DZ Bank warn that the German stock market may be vulnerable to corrections, as there are enough potential triggers for a deterioration in sentiment.
US Tariffs as a Burden
Specifically, it is expected that news regarding the tariff conflict between the US and the EU could create pressure at the beginning of the week. The US government has announced tariff increases that could generate revenues of around $300 billion by the end of 2025. The EU plans to refrain from imposing counter-tariffs for now and intends to suspend these measures until early August.
Technical Analysis
Technically speaking, despite recent profit-taking, the DAX continues to maintain a bullish trend with quotations above significant moving averages (SMA50 at around 23,816 points). As long as these levels can be held, further upward impulses are possible with targets around 24,815 to just above 25,000 points. However, the indication from the broker IG on Monday morning already points to a potential decline of about one percent to around 24,070 points – close to a psychologically important mark of 24,000 points.
Impact of Important Price Data
In addition to the tariff issues, crucial price data from the US are also expected to influence and create volatility in the market. Analysts currently anticipate only slight increases in profits for US companies, which, while leaving room for positive surprises, also poses uncertainties.
Overall, after the strong rise of the DAX, a bumpy phase is to be expected, in which short-term corrections are not ruled out – particularly if geopolitical tensions in the trade conflict escalate or disappointing economic data is published.