China’s economic growth in the second quarter of 2025 was 5.2% year-on-year, which is slightly below the strong growth of 5.4% in the first quarter but exceeded market expectations of 5.1%. Compared to the previous quarter, GDP rose by 1.1%, also slightly better than the expected 0.9%.
Key Details on Economic Development
- Retail sales rose by 4.8% in June but fell short of expectations of 5.6% and last year’s figure of 6.4%.
- Industrial production increased significantly by 6.8%, much stronger than expected (forecast: +5.6%) and compared to May (5.8%).
- Investment in fixed assets grew only by 2.8% until June, less than the forecasted 3.7%.
- Real estate investments continued to decline (-11.2% in the first half of the year), indicating ongoing problems in this sector.
The data show an overall robust economic development despite global challenges such as US tariffs and the ongoing real estate crisis. However, analysts see increasing headwinds for China’s economic growth and expect further pressure on policymakers to initiate additional stimulus measures.
The official growth target for the entire year remains at around five percent; however, experts believe that without state stimulus, this target will be difficult to achieve. The Q2 result signals a slight softening compared to Q1, but still indicates resilience in the economy of the world’s second-largest economy.
In Summary
| Indicator | Value Q2/2025 | Expectation | Value Q1/2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth (Year-on-Year) | +5.2% | +5.1% | +5.4% |
| GDP Growth (Quarter-on-Quarter) | +1.1% | +0.9% | +1.2% |
| Retail Sales (June) | +4.8% | +5.6% | +6.4% |
| Industrial Production (June) | +6.8% | +5.6%-+5.7% | +5.8% |
| Investment in Fixed Assets H1 | +2.8% | approx.+3.7 | – |
These figures are particularly relevant for investors in light of global market conditions and provide important insights into China’s economic dynamics as well as potential impacts on international financial markets.