The release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June 2025 shows a troubling trend of rising inflationary pressure. The CPI records an annual increase of 2.7% compared to the previous year, representing an increase from 2.4% in May 2025.
Development of Core Inflation
A particularly significant signal for the economy is the development of core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. This is expected to rise to 3.0% annually, up from 2.8% previously. On a monthly basis, both the headline CPI and core CPI are projected to experience growth of around 0.3%.
Potential Impacts on Monetary Policy
These inflation data are crucial not only for consumers but also for investors. The increased price pressure could impact the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. A rise in inflation that exceeds expectations could stoke speculation about a tighter monetary policy or at least reduce the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the near future.
The Fed recently signaled that it will proceed cautiously given solid economic data and a moderately rising inflation level. In its next meeting, interest rates are likely to remain unchanged, and the Fed will closely monitor inflation trends as well as new trade tariffs on price pressures.
Impacts on Stock Markets
For the stock markets, rising inflation may mean higher interest rates or at least tempered expectations of rate cuts. This can exert pressure on growth-oriented stocks and increase volatility, while defensive sectors could benefit.
In summary, investors should continue to closely watch the signals from the Fed to optimally adjust their risk-return strategies in an environment of moderately rising inflation and monetary policy uncertainty.