The drastic decline of the S&P 500, triggered by the announcement of new tariffs by Donald Trump, has significant implications for the financial markets and could directly affect private investors. Here are the key aspects of these market movements:
Background and Causes
Tariffs from Donald Trump: The announcement of new tariffs by former US President Donald Trump has led to a massive loss of confidence among investors. These tariffs could significantly disrupt global trade dynamics and lead to a protectionist cycle.
Bear Market: The S&P 500 has officially entered a bear market after falling more than 20% from its peak in February 2025. The Nasdaq 100 had already surpassed this threshold the previous Friday.
Impacts on Investors and Markets
Losses in Technology Stocks: The technology sector, particularly the “Magnificent Seven” (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia), has suffered significant losses. These companies have lost over $2 trillion in market capitalization in recent days.
Recession Risks: The tariffs could fuel inflation and increase recession risks. According to Goldman Sachs, there is a 45% risk of a recession in the US.
Global Markets: The effects are not limited to the US markets. European and Asian markets have also experienced significant losses, indicating a global tightening of economic uncertainty.
Forecasts and Scenarios
UBS Scenario: Analysts at UBS warn of a possible further decline of the S&P 500 to as low as 4600 points, which represents an additional loss of about 9%. This scenario is based on the assumption that the tariffs remain in place and could severely impact corporate profits.
Earnings Growth: The forecasts for earnings growth of companies listed on the S&P 500 have been significantly downgraded. Zero growth or even a decline in profits is feared for 2025.
Recommendations for Investors
Risk Management: Investors should reconsider their risk management and potentially invest in less volatile assets like gold, which is considered a safe haven.
Diversification: A broad diversification of the portfolio can help minimize the impact of market fluctuations.
Monitoring Political Developments: Investors should closely watch political developments and possible changes in trade policy, as these can have significant impacts on the markets.
In summary, the drastic decline of the S&P 500 due to the new tariffs presents a significant challenge for investors. The uncertainty and risks of a recession could lead to further market movements, necessitating a cautious investment strategy.