Background of the Trade Conflict
US Tariffs: US President Donald Trump has announced comprehensive tariffs on imports from all countries, including flat base tariffs of ten percent and higher punitive tariffs for countries with trade deficits with the US. These measures have come into effect and have led to further escalation of the trade war.
China’s Reaction: China has imposed counter-tariffs and plans to increase them further, which has caused massive uncertainty in the international financial markets.
Effects on the DAX and Investor Sentiment
Market Development: The DAX has suffered significant losses in recent days. After a temporary recovery trend, the index has come under pressure again as investors fear the uncertainty and potential economic consequences of the trade war.
Investor Sentiment: Investors are cautious and tend to take profits as prices recover slightly. This leads to a “toxic mix” of selling and a lack of buyers, making a sustainable market recovery difficult.
Economic Concerns: The US’s protectionist trade policy jeopardizes global economic growth and fuels recession fears. This affects not only the DAX but also the global economy.
Impact on the German Industry
Employment and Production: The German industry is experiencing a declining number of jobs due to geopolitical tensions and global technological competition.
Order Development: In sectors such as machinery and automotive, there are order dampeners, while metal production and processing show positive developments.
Export Growth: Experts warn of weaker export growth, particularly to the US, which is exacerbated by trade wars and protectionism.
Global Reactions
EU Countermeasures: The EU plans countermeasures against the US tariffs, which could further escalate the conflict.
International Negotiations: Some countries, such as South Korea and Thailand, have offered negotiations or made concessions to ease the trade conflict.