Price Developments and Trading Tensions
The iron ore price at the Singapore Exchange was between 97–98.71 USD/t in mid-April, while Dalian contracts fluctuated between 708 Yuan/t (96.70 USD) and 762 Yuan/t. Despite a slight weekly gain until April 21, a downward trend has dominated for weeks, with a decline of up to 4.8%. The escalation of US-China tariffs (125% US tariffs vs. 84% Chinese retaliatory measures) is weighing on demand for raw materials. ANZ experts warn of recession risks with further tightening.
China’s Key Role
China’s real estate crisis threatens to dampen steel demand – Fitch forecasts a 10% decline in new home sales in 2025. Since the construction industry accounts for about 50% of China’s steel consumption, this directly affects iron ore consumption. High iron stockpiles in Chinese ports amplify oversupply pressure and limit price recoveries.
Forecasts and Market Dynamics
Goldman Sachs expects a rise to 90 USD/t by Q4/2025, which already exceeds current prices – a sign of diverging market expectations. Analysts see sideways movements dominating as long as there is no easing in the trade dispute or in China’s economy.
For investors, this means increased volatility due to geopolitical risks and sectoral dependencies. The combination of trade protectionism, weak Chinese demand, and inventory surpluses could favor further corrections.