25.04.2025

LVMH in the Tension Field: Dividend Policy versus Sales Weaknesses

Financial Figures & Dividend Attractiveness

  • Current Price: EUR 493.90 (as of April 2025) following a decline of ~6.9% due to Q1 revenue drop.
  • Dividend: Payout of EUR 2.78 per share with a yield of 2.29% and moderate payout ratio (51.58%).
  • Valuation: Trailing P/E ratio of 20.90 / Forward P/E of 17.33 – potentially undervalued compared to historical levels.

Regional Sales Developments

Region Q1 2025 Performance Drivers/Risks
Europe Growth Stable demand despite inflation
USA Slight decline Segment mix: Fashion & Leather Goods stable
Japan Significant year-over-year decline Base effect after strong Q1/2024
Asia Stable compared to last year China remains key market

Challenges & Opportunities

  • Geopolitical Risks: Trade conflicts and currency fluctuations are straining global supply chains.
  • Brand Portfolio: Diversification across wine/spirits to luxury watches offers resilience against sector risks.
  • Innovation Pressure: Sustainability initiatives and digitalization (e.g., Metaverse collections) as growth levers.

Analyst Assessments

The average price target forecast is EUR 660–689 (+35–40% upside), with recent sales drops in key markets making short-term corrections likely. Long-term, LVMH remains a core investment for defensive portfolios due to its market power in the luxury goods industry – provided that management addresses regional imbalances through targeted marketing and pricing management.