Impact of Trade Conflicts on the DAX
The ongoing tariff conflicts between the United States and China, as well as the planned U.S. import tariffs on EU goods, continue to dominate developments in the German stock market. The DAX remains in a volatile phase, with experts highlighting three central aspects:
1. Political Dominance of Stock Market Development
Current price movements are largely determined by trade policy news. Recent signals from China indicating willingness to negotiate in the trade dispute and more moderate tones from the U.S. President may spark short-term hopes, but analysts like Frank Klumpp (LBBW) warn against excessive optimism: Trump’s “America First” agenda remains unchanged, which could lead to long-term protectionist measures. Ulrich Kater (Dekabank) emphasizes that U.S. policy continues to aim at restructuring the global economy in favor of the U.S.
2. Impact on Companies and Industries
- Luxury Goods: LVMH shows weaknesses in Q1 sales; DZ Bank lowered its fair value due to tariff risks to 528 Euros. While large brands like Louis Vuitton may pass on costs to customers, smaller brands face margin pressure.
- Technology: ASML recently suffered from disappointing quarterly figures and indirect export restrictions due to U.S. tariffs.
- Raw Materials/Industry: Sartorius recorded increases in sales and profits, but industry-wide tariff consequences could burden supply chains.
3. Macroeconomic Risks and Data Situation
The announced U.S. tariff package with blanket 10% import duties – up to 20% for EU countries – could slow global growth. IG Markets has already projected DAX declines of up to 1.9% upon the introduction of new duties, while current economic data may show initial signs of strain. The shortened trading week due to Labor Day on Thursday is likely to further encourage volatility.
Comparison of Key Risk Factors
| Factor | Short-Term Effect | Long-Term Risk |
|---|---|---|
| U.S.-China Negotiations | Volatility | Systemic Trade Wars |
| EU-U.S. Tariffs | Margin Pressure | Growth Dampening |
| Corporate Reports | Individual Stock Reactions | Sector Weakness |
Experts see no all-clear signal despite partial recovery tendencies: The earnings season will be a stress test for corporate exposures to trade policy risks.