The price of gold has seen a significant rise in recent months, driven mainly by increasing fears of recession and global economic uncertainties. This development is particularly relevant for private investors who often turn to safe investments like gold during times of economic instability.
Factors Influencing the Price of Gold
1. Recession Fears
The fear of a potential recession has intensified in recent months. This uncertainty leads investors to avoid risky assets and instead invest in safe havens like gold. Analysts from Goldman Sachs see a 45% probability of a recession, which could further boost demand for gold.
2. Trade War and Tariffs
The ongoing trade war, especially between the USA and China, has put pressure on global markets. Tariffs and protectionist measures contribute to increased uncertainty, which also raises demand for gold.
3. Central Banks and ETFs
In recent years, central banks have increased their gold reserves, supporting the price of gold. Additionally, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by gold have played a significant role in boosting demand. Inflows into these funds could accelerate further in a recession and push the price of gold even higher.
Current Developments in Gold Prices
The price of gold has risen by almost 30% since January 2025, recently reaching a new record high of over $3,245 per ounce. However, following a rapid rise, the price of gold has corrected and is currently below $3,300. Despite this correction, demand for gold remains high as global economic uncertainties persist.
Forecasts and Price Targets
Goldman Sachs has set a price target of $4,000 for gold, based on rising recession risks and increased demand from central banks and ETFs. If a recession occurs, the price of gold could rise to $3,880 per ounce by the end of the year. Overall, gold remains an attractive investment option for private investors seeking safe havens during times of economic uncertainty. The increasing fears of recession and ongoing global tensions continue to contribute to high demand for gold.