Adjustment of Forecast in Detail
Porsche AG significantly revised its forecast for the current fiscal year downward on April 28, 2025, which has several critical factors as a consequence. Revenue expectations have been lowered from an initial 39–40 billion € to 37–38 billion €. The operating margin is also under pressure, although specific percentages are not provided.
Main Reasons for the Adjustment
- Weakness in China: Declines in demand in the important sales market of China are impacting the business.
- Strategic Shift: The pivot towards electric mobility and new business models incurs short-term costs.
- US Import Tariffs: Trade barriers could reduce margins in North America.
Stock Price Development in 2025
Despite the negative news, Porsche shares show mixed dynamics. In April 2025, the opening price is €48.24, with an expected range of €48.12–53.18 and a forecasted performance of +5%. For May 2025, a price of ~€51.28 is expected, based on a range of €48.72–53.84. By November 2025, the price is forecasted to rise to about €57.96, with an anticipated range of €55.06–60.86.
Recommendations for Investors
Short-term: Risk management, especially regarding dependence on China.
Medium-/long-term: Monitoring the success of electric models such as the Macan Electric. Success may become visible by the end of 2026.
The current development underscores the necessity for selective portfolio management in automotive stocks, focusing on transformation speed and regional diversification.