Apple Stock Faces Challenges: Risks and Strategies until 2026
The Apple stock is facing significant challenges, which UBS analysts have identified as structural risks for the years 2025 and 2026. Here is a detailed analysis of the core issues and their implications:
1. Weak iPhone Demand Expectations
- Minor Innovations: The new iPhone expected in September 2025 is likely to offer only “slight innovations,” according to UBS analyst David Vogt, which will slow the demand development.
- Risk of Stagnation: The introduction of “Apple Intelligence” is not expected to trigger significant sales impulses, increasing the risk of demand stagnation in the fiscal year 2026.
- Short-term Adjustments: Despite slightly raised revenue estimates for the March quarter (51.5 million iPhones with $47.1 billion in revenue), the long-term forecast remains skeptical.
2. Geopolitical Risks
- U.S. Tariffs on Chinese Imports: New U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports that have been in effect since April 2025 are increasing Apple’s production costs – either through price increases for consumers or margin losses.
- Relocation of Production to India: Apple plans to relocate parts of the iPhone manufacturing to India in response to diversify cost risks. However, this transition could bring operational challenges in the short term.
3. Market Reactions and Valuation
- Stock Price Decline: The stock lost over a fifth of its value within four trading days in April 2025 – a signal of investor uncertainty in light of the tariff impacts.
- Valuation Pressure: The current NASDAQ price of ~210 USD (as of April 2025) offers no upside potential, according to UBS, as expectations are already priced in.
Strategic Implications
Apple must stabilize supply chains in the short term while also uncovering new growth sources through software innovations (e.g., AI features). Ultimately, whether the planned production relocation can realize cost advantages will be crucial – otherwise, further phases of margin pressure threaten.