The current situation in the US markets shows a mix of technical corrections and fundamental concerns. Goldman Sachs plays an ambivalent role: while the company impressed with strong quarterly numbers and a 40 billion dollar share buyback program, the bank simultaneously warns of macroeconomic risks.
Goldman Sachs’ Positioning
Own Strength
- Revenue Growth: +9% to 15.1 billion USD in the most recent quarter.
- Share Buybacks: The announced program could absorb 25% of the outstanding shares, theoretically increasing earnings per share by 33%.
- Valuation: The stock is trading at approximately 475 EUR (as of April 2025) with an A-rating, but with high risk (loss ratio of 2.76).
Market Warnings
- Recession Risk: Goldman increased the likelihood of a recession to 45%, with bank stocks typically suffering significantly during such phases.
- Liquidity Shortages: Shrinking market liquidity exacerbates volatility.
- Trade Conflicts: Global tensions affect growth forecasts, especially in the technology sector – the Nasdaq already recorded pre-market drops.
S&P 500 Forecast and Market Dynamics
Goldman sees the S&P 500 stabilizing only after a clear growth trough – a signal that the current corrections are not yet complete. The Dow Jones recently showed fatigue after six positive trading days, indicating hesitant investors.
Comparison of Relevant Factors
| Factor | Impact | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Recession Fears | Pressure on cyclicals like Caterpillar/First Solar | [4] |
| Tech Correction | Nasdaq underperforms (Super Micro/Snap drops) | [3] |
| Corporate Earnings | Mixed picture: Seagate exceeds expectations (+7% pre-market), tech weakens | [1][4] |
The current strategy recommendation lies between selective opportunities and defensive risk management in light of systemic threats.