Current Developments and Base Forecasts
The gold price reached a new all-time high of around 3,260 USD per ounce in April 2025. According to conservative estimates, the price could range between 3,058 and 3,583 USD by the end of 2026, representing an increase of 29% to 37% compared to May 2024. At the same time, Wallet Investor predicts a moderate upward trend to about 3,419 USD by December 2026, which corresponds to +8.4% compared to January of the same year.
Bullish Extreme Forecasts
Some analysts believe in a potential price jump to over 5,000 USD by early 2026. These extreme forecasts are based on geopolitical risks and expected monetary policy decisions that could make gold a more attractive safe haven.
Institutional Expectations
Deutsche Bank has significantly raised its gold price forecast. Initially, it expected about 2,725 USD for 2025 but has revised this to 3,139 USD. The forecast for 2026 was raised from 2,900 USD to 3,700 USD.
Drivers of Price Increase
Inflation and recession fears, high demand from China and India, as well as central bank purchases are key drivers of the expected price increase. Trade conflicts could slow global growth while simultaneously fueling inflation.
The majority of forecasts see prices between about 3,400 and 3,700 USD for gold by the end of 2026, while more extreme models predict potentially far-reaching developments over 5,000 USD due to macroeconomic shocks.
Note: Differences in the base years of the sources underline the volatility of these projections.