Market Development and Drivers
In 2025, the gold price has reached historic highs with over 30% price gain (as of May: approximately 3,230 USD/ounce). The main drivers of this development are geopolitical tensions, destabilized by Trump’s tariff policy imposing tariffs of up to 145% against China. Additionally, the weakness of the US dollar increases the attractiveness of gold-backed investments. Furthermore, ESG requirements hinder production expansion, while central bank purchases, especially from emerging markets, are on the rise.
Mining Stocks vs. Physical Gold
Despite the ongoing gold boom, many mining stocks such as Barrick or Newmont show only moderate price increases. This is due to rising costs for energy and wages, which pressure margins, as well as production declines, as many mines struggle with decreasing output and challenging exploration prospects.
Profit Strategies for Investors
ETFs as Core Investment
Gold mining ETFs offer a cost-effective way to invest broadly in the sector and reduce individual risks, which is particularly important given the volatility of individual stocks.
Specialized Explorers with Acquisition Potential
Junior mines like Tocvan Ventures are in focus due to excellent drilling results and acquisition speculation from major companies looking to improve their reserve situation.
Technology-Driven Producers
Innovative mining methods such as bioleaching could become game-changers with rising prices, making it worthwhile to look at niche players with patented technologies.
Risk Assessment and Outlook
Analysts consider short-term corrections possible (about 10% decline), but the structural upward trend remains intact. Goldman Sachs even forecasts a price of 3,500-4,000 USD/ounce in the medium term, driven by institutional demand and de-dollarization trends in emerging markets. For risk-aware investors, attractive entry opportunities arise during downturns, especially with undervalued mid-tier producers with unexploited exploration potential.