The year 2025 promises to be an exciting time for investors, as stock markets are bracing for a thrilling roller coaster ride. While positive economic prospects provide hope for the continuation of the bull market, challenges are also emerging. Inflation, which initially seemed under control, could rise again due to a reviving economy and a tightening labor market. This is accompanied by a significant increase in industrial metal prices, potentially amplifying inflationary pressure. On the monetary policy side, the European Central Bank plans to continue its cycle of interest rate cuts for now, aiming to lower deposit rates to a neutral range of 2.00 to 2.25 percent. Nonetheless, the improved economic outlook is increasingly coming into focus, possibly necessitating a change in approach. Interestingly, the growth forecast for the Eurozone has been downgraded by observers to an increase of only 0.9 percent in 2025. In the United States, the Federal Reserve finds itself in a difficult position. Economists see the risk of an economic slowdown and a potential recession or stagnation phase. The Fed might be forced to either hold rates steady or cut them to stabilize the economy. Currently, the majority of experts predict a stabilization of interest rates, followed by potential rate cuts if the economy further deteriorates. Another uncertainty factor is the ongoing trade conflict, which has weighed on the markets. The sell-off in the S&P 500 and US high-yield bonds underscores market nervousness despite robust US economic data. China has responded with 34 percent tariffs, and further international measures could follow. Nevertheless, the long-term outlook for US stocks remains optimistic. Led by megatrends like artificial intelligence, growth opportunities continue to exist.
06.05.2025