Background: Escalation in the Tariff Dispute
The current market situation is characterized by increasing uncertainty in trade relations between the USA and China. Recent developments in the tariff dispute, especially the repeated threats and measures from US President Donald Trump as well as China’s responses, have created a tense atmosphere in the financial markets.
- Tariffs at Record Levels: In April 2025, mutual tariffs reached an all-time high. The USA gradually increased tariffs on Chinese goods to as much as 145 percent, while China responded with counter-tariffs of up to 125 percent on US goods.
- Threats Continue: Despite short-term progress in talks and relief in the markets, little has changed regarding the fundamental points of contention.
Impact on the Stock Markets
- Short Relief: The German DAX temporarily rose to a record high (just under 23,912 points), while other indices such as the Chinese CSI 300 also gained.
- Fading Gains: During the day, these price gains weakened, indicating that confidence in a sustainable solution is fragile.
Outlook: What Does This Mean for Investors?
- Increased Volatility Expected: Investors should expect a turbulent stock market week.
- Sectorial Risks to Consider: Especially export-oriented sectors may be more affected.
“If we had an agreement, we wouldn’t have to interrupt anything. We would have a deal.”
— Peter Schiff on the current situation of the trade dispute.
Conclusion
Investors should prepare for the possibility of further fluctuations in the DAX and other global indices in the short term. A long-term calming is only likely when there are concrete advances in a trade agreement or at least reliable signals of de-escalation are sent.