Correlation between MicroStrategy stock and Bitcoin
The stock of MicroStrategy shows a very strong positive correlation to Bitcoin with a correlation coefficient of 0.83 on a monthly basis. This means that stock prices and the Bitcoin price generally move very similarly. However, there are indications that this close coupling is currently loosening or diverging somewhat. While Bitcoin has reached new all-time highs, the MicroStrategy stock shows signs of weakness or a downward trend.
Potential undervaluation
An analyst named Timothy Peterson has found that the MicroStrategy stock yields, on average, about 1.5 times the return of Bitcoin in the short term. Despite this leverage, the stock seems to be trading below its expected value – thus undervalued relative to the current rise in Bitcoin prices. This discrepancy could present a buying opportunity for investors who believe in a restoration of the historical correlation.
Company situation and risks
Despite the strong commitment to Bitcoins, MicroStrategy is suffering financially: In the first quarter of 2025, a substantial net loss of over $4 billion was reported. Analysts warn of long-term financial risks despite the potential from the rising BTC value.
Conclusion for investors
MicroStrategy offers indirect exposure to the crypto market through stock trading. The current potential undervaluation in relation to the Bitcoin upward trend may provide opportunities, but investors should be mindful of the high volatility in both BTC and MSTR, the company’s financial losses, and possible future divergences.