The current situation in the precious metals market is characterized by a strong gold rally, while silver is lagging significantly despite its industrial and monetary character. The so-called “silver crisis” refers to the historically high gold-to-silver price ratio (Gold-Silver Ratio), which was around 100.9 at the end of April 2025 – meaning that one ounce of gold costs as much as approximately 101 ounces of silver. For comparison: The long-term average since 1970 is about 62.8.
Reasons for the Current Development
- Gold-Silver Ratio at Record Level: A ratio above 100 indicates an extreme deviation from the historical average. Such levels have often been harbingers of silver outperforming gold in the past.
- Supply Deficit in Silver: In 2024, a supply deficit was noted for the fourth consecutive time. Demand for silver exceeded supply by approximately 148 million ounces.
- Industrial Demand as a Driver: Particularly, the booming photovoltaic industry is driving demand for silver.
Forecasts and Potential
- Catch-up Potential for Silver: Experts see significant catch-up potential due to the extremely high price ratio and the ongoing supply deficit.
- Price Development by Year-End: Fluctuations between about $29.80 and $36.91 per ounce are expected, with a possible decline to around $31.37 by December.
- Long-term Perspective: A gradual increase is forecasted for the coming years, potentially exceeding $70 per ounce by the end of the decade.
Importance for Investors and Savers
- Opportunities Due to Low Valuation: Investments in silver could pay off as the ratio approaches its long-term average again.
- Risks Due to Volatility: Fluctuations are still expected, especially due to macroeconomic developments.
- Diversification Effect: Including physical or exchange-traded precious metals can diversify portfolios.
Conclusion: While gold is currently in the spotlight, silver offers attractive catch-up potential due to its undervalued positioning. Experts expect this discrepancy may balance out in the medium term – presenting significant opportunities for investors.