03.06.2025

Silver Crisis: Unequal Developments in the Precious Metals Market

The current situation in the precious metals market is characterized by a strong gold rally, while silver is lagging significantly despite its industrial and monetary character. The so-called “silver crisis” refers to the historically high gold-to-silver price ratio (Gold-Silver Ratio), which was around 100.9 at the end of April 2025 – meaning that one ounce of gold costs as much as approximately 101 ounces of silver. For comparison: The long-term average since 1970 is about 62.8.

Reasons for the Current Development

  • Gold-Silver Ratio at Record Level: A ratio above 100 indicates an extreme deviation from the historical average. Such levels have often been harbingers of silver outperforming gold in the past.
  • Supply Deficit in Silver: In 2024, a supply deficit was noted for the fourth consecutive time. Demand for silver exceeded supply by approximately 148 million ounces.
  • Industrial Demand as a Driver: Particularly, the booming photovoltaic industry is driving demand for silver.

Forecasts and Potential

  • Catch-up Potential for Silver: Experts see significant catch-up potential due to the extremely high price ratio and the ongoing supply deficit.
  • Price Development by Year-End: Fluctuations between about $29.80 and $36.91 per ounce are expected, with a possible decline to around $31.37 by December.
  • Long-term Perspective: A gradual increase is forecasted for the coming years, potentially exceeding $70 per ounce by the end of the decade.

Importance for Investors and Savers

  • Opportunities Due to Low Valuation: Investments in silver could pay off as the ratio approaches its long-term average again.
  • Risks Due to Volatility: Fluctuations are still expected, especially due to macroeconomic developments.
  • Diversification Effect: Including physical or exchange-traded precious metals can diversify portfolios.

Conclusion: While gold is currently in the spotlight, silver offers attractive catch-up potential due to its undervalued positioning. Experts expect this discrepancy may balance out in the medium term – presenting significant opportunities for investors.