On April 9, 2025, it becomes apparent that the DAX is far from any bottom formation. This uncertainty increases the risk that the index reaches new lows below 18,800 points.
Background and Analysis
Chart Technical Situation
The current chart analysis indicates a negative trend. However, there is potential for recovery above 19,950 points, but the general sentiment remains neutral. Whether a recovery materializes greatly depends on whether the DAX stays above certain support levels.
Support Levels
Important support levels are around 19,300 points. If the DAX falls below this mark, a further crash down to about 17,550 points could follow.
Risk of New Lows
Without a clear bottom formation, there is a high probability for new lows, exacerbated by the current market situation and existing uncertainties.
Influencing Factors
- Political Uncertainties: Particularly political developments and statements from Donald Trump increase uncertainty and risk appetite.
- Financial Markets: Sales of US government bonds have pushed ten-year yields up from 3.9 to 4.5 percent, indicating heightened uncertainty.
- Currency Movements: A strengthening of the Euro against the US Dollar reflects the general market uncertainty.
Forecasts and Recommendations
Short-Term Forecast: The risk of new lows remains, which is why investors should wait for clear recovery signals.
Long-Term Strategy: Due to uncertainties, it may be wise to hold liquid assets and invest in stable options until the market situation clarifies.
Overall, the DAX remains in a precarious situation, and investors need to be prepared for potential risks.