Current Trends in the DAX
- Performance 2025: The DAX has shown strong performance since the beginning of 2025 with an increase of about 6.8% by mid-April, reaching an all-time high of around 23,578 points in March. However, there was a significant pullback of over 8% at the beginning of April, followed by a slight recovery.
- Short-Term Fluctuations: Volatility remains high due to uncertainties such as the upcoming ECB interest rate decision and global trade conflicts. On the day of the latest data, the index was slightly below the level of about 21,270 points.
- Corporate Development: Some large companies like Siemens Energy were able to significantly increase their value after strong quarterly numbers (+11%), while others like Sartorius AG or Fresenius Medical Care reported losses.
- Long-Term Forecasts: Analysts expect moderate growth rates for the DAX with annual profit increases of about 16% in the coming years. WalletInvestor forecasts a price range between approximately 17,478 and 18,299 points by the end of 2025, with an overall positive trend despite short-term corrections.
- Valuation Situation: According to the Buffett Indicator, the German stock market is currently moderately overvalued (market capitalization/GDP about 63%, valuation at about 40.6%), indicating an expected return of only around 2.2–3.5% annually in the coming years – suggesting rather cautious growth potential despite good profit development.
Developments in Commodities
Commodities are currently volatile due to geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties. Oil prices hover around the mark of about $63 per barrel (Brent), indicating moderate demand expectations.
Strategic Implications for Investors
- In the stock market, the DAX offers long-term growth potential through solid corporate profits despite short-term fluctuations; however, one should consider the moderately high valuation and account for possible corrections.
- Diversification is advisable: Besides stocks, commodities can serve as a hedge against inflation or geopolitical risks.
- Monitoring monetary policy decisions (ECB) and global trade developments remains crucial for assessing further price movements.
In summary, a detailed analysis is expected in the next issue of Report Mainz, which will delve into these aspects – particularly the balance between opportunities from corporate growth in the DAX and risks from valuation levels as well as external influencing factors in the commodity markets.