Background: Customs Policy and Its Impacts
US Customs Policy
US President Donald Trump has imposed high tariffs on imports, leading to a global trade conflict. Many countries, including China, have implemented counter-tariffs or threatened to do so. These measures increase uncertainty in the markets and impact the profit margins of companies engaged in international trade.
Impacts on the Stock Market
The tariffs have led to a significant decline in stock prices. The S&P 500, an important index for the US stock market, has lost significant value in recent months. This decline is exacerbated by uncertainty regarding future economic developments.
Possible Recession in the USA
Recession Risk
Many experts warn of a potential recession in the USA that could be triggered by customs policy and other economic factors. The probability of a recession is estimated by some analysts to be as high as 60%.
Consequences of a Recession
A recession in the USA would have far-reaching effects on the global economy. Export-oriented countries like Germany, Japan, and South Korea could be particularly affected, as the demand for their products would decline. This could lead to business bankruptcies, unemployment, and a decrease in consumer spending.
Impacts on German Investors and Savers
International Interconnections
The German economy is closely linked to the global economy. Therefore, a weakening of the US economy or a trade conflict could also impact the German market. German companies heavily involved in international trade could suffer from the tariffs.
Investment Strategies
German investors should diversify their portfolios to minimize risks. A broad distribution of investments, including safe asset forms like bonds, can help cushion the effects of market fluctuations.
Warnings from the Fed Chief
Fed Position
The Fed Chief has expressed concern about the possible negative consequences of tariffs. These warnings contribute to uncertainty in the markets and can lead to further declines in stock prices.
Investor Reactions
Many investors respond to the uncertainty with caution. However, retail investors often buy into falling markets, hoping to benefit from lower prices in the long term. This strategy, however, carries risks, especially if the market continues to decline.
In summary, the US stock market and the global economy face significant challenges, exacerbated by customs policy and potential recession risks. German investors should be aware of these risks and adjust their investment strategies accordingly.