The current increase in the euro exchange rate to $1.1476 (reference rate of the ECB on 22.04.2025) reflects a complex market dynamic that has both immediate and long-term effects:
Market Mechanisms and Causes
- ECB Policy: The setting of the reference rate occurs in the context of an interest rate level of 2.65% in the Eurozone, while the US Federal Reserve remains at 4.5%. This interest rate differential traditionally favors the dollar, but current inflation data (2.3% in the Eurozone vs. 3.2% in the USA) indicates decreasing pressure for further rate hikes in the USA.
- Technical Signals: The EUR/USD shows short-term resistances around $1.10, with the current rate at ~1.14651 already above this – an indication of a latent upward trend.
Effects on Actors
| Area | Consequences |
|---|---|
| Exporters | Higher euro rates reduce competitiveness outside the Eurozone |
| Savers | Real gains in purchasing power for imported goods and dollar assets |
| Investors | The attractiveness of European stock markets increases due to currency appreciation |
Parallel Developments with the Swiss Franc
The EUR/CHF, according to analyses, is on the verge of a recovery to 0.94–0.95 CHF, driven by:
- Sell Waves with Counter-Reaction: Three “Sell Climaxes” led to abrupt price drops followed by buyer support.
- Hidden Buying Pressure: Order book analyses show accumulating long positions despite superficial weakness.
Long-Term Predictions
For EUR/USD, the following scenarios are discussed in the medium term:
- Bullish: Breaking the 1.15 mark as a springboard to the test zone around 1.18–1.20 USD.
- Consolidation: Sideways movement between 1.12–1.15 USD with ongoing Fed-ECB interest rate differential.
The technical analysis emphasizes the all-time high at 1.6038 USD and the current year high around 1.11 USD as critical markers.