The US bank JPMorgan has once again rated Commerzbank as “Overweight” on April 22, 2025, confirming a price target of 27 euros. This rating follows an earlier adjustment on March 25, when the price target was raised from 23 to 27 euros, along with a moderate increase in estimates for adjusted earnings per share for 2025 and 2026. Analyst Kian Abouhossein justified the decision among other things with the adjusted profit forecasts, yet simultaneously expressed caution regarding European banks compared to US institutions and rated the sector overall as “Neutral”.
Background of the Rating
- Earnings Expectations: The reassessment is based on slightly increased estimates for adjusted earnings per share (EPS) over the next two years.
- Sectoral Caution: Despite the positive signal for Commerzbank, JPMorgan lowered the overall rating for European banks due to what is regarded as an excessive price increase compared to US banks.
Significance for Private Investors
- Implied Price Target: The price target of 27 euros is significantly above the current level (as of April/March 2025), which signals significant upside potential.
- Risk Assessment: The caution regarding the European banking sector underscores the need for a differentiated selection within the sector.
- Macroeconomic Context: The rating is set against the backdrop of political uncertainties (including US elections) and their potential impacts on growth and inflation, as discussed in other JPMorgan analyses.
Comparison with Other JPMorgan Recommendations
| Company | Rating Change | Price Target Adjustment | Justification |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commerzbank | Confirmation of Overweight | Unchanged (27 €) | Higher EPS Estimates |
| Ziff Davis | Downgrade to Neutral | $60 → $33 | Macro Environment Pressures |
| Flywire | Downgrade to Underweight | $16 → $9 |
The diverging ratings show that JPMorgan currently sees selective opportunities in individual stocks, while macroeconomic risks must be considered across the board.
For savers, this means: The Commerzbank rating provides a concrete point of reference for orientation but should be analyzed in the context of overall economic conditions—especially in light of challenges mentioned in other analyses, such as interest rate trends or regulatory changes.