Confrontation with New Market Conditions
Novo Nordisk is currently facing significant challenges due to new competing products and rapid market changes. The recently announced positive results from Eli Lilly’s experimental weight-loss pill, Orforgliprone, which showed an average weight loss of 7.9% after 40 weeks in a phase 3 study, have caused an upheaval in the market. On April 22, 2025, Novo Nordisk’s stock fell by 9%, prompting analysts from Intron Health to lower their revenue forecasts for 2030 by 20% and their earnings estimates by 24%, assuming Novo Nordisk retains only a quarter of the obesity market.
Price Targets and Ratings
As a result of these developments, analysts set new price targets. Intron Health reduced the target price to 350 DKK. BMO Capital Markets downgraded Novo Nordisk’s rating to “Underperform” with a target of $64, while Morningstar maintains a “Fair Value” of 640 DKK and sees the company’s strengths in a broad economic moat.
Strategic Countermeasures
In strategic response, Novo Nordisk applied for approval of an oral version of Wegovy in the U.S. Further measures include acquiring exclusive rights to Lexicon Pharmaceuticals’ obesity drug LX9851, with potential milestone payments of up to $1 billion.
Risks in the Distribution Channel
Another risk is the spread of counterfeit Ozempic products within the U.S. supply chain. The FDA has already acted and is investigating these incidents, posing a threat to Novo Nordisk’s brand reputation.
Outlook
For investors, it is crucial to keep an eye on the dynamics in the GLP-1 sector, including upcoming approval processes and the announcement of quarterly results on May 7, as well as potential new partnerships.
Comparison of Key Data
| Aspect | Novo Nordisk | Eli Lilly (Orforgliprone) |
|---|---|---|
| Active Substance Type | GLP-1 Injection/Oral (in development) | Oral |
| Weight Reduction | Up to ~15% (Wegovy) | ~7.9% in Phase 3 |
| Market Advantage | Established Diabetes/Obesity Market | Potential as Pill Form |