Current Development of Tax Revenues
The current developments in tax revenues in Germany show a significant dynamism, which influences both fiscal policy and macroeconomic conditions. Already in the first quarter of 2025, revenues increased by 9.5% to 222 billion euros. In particular, the months of February and March 2025 recorded remarkable increases of +8.1% and +11% compared to the previous year.
Drivers of the Increase
- Income Tax: A disproportionate increase of more than 7% due to collective wage agreements.
- Value Added Tax:
- 16% growth in March, driven by retail sales (+3.5%, including automotive trade) and imports (+8.7%), leading to an increase in import VAT by 19%.
Impact on Financial Policy
The current trend offers significant relief potential for the public deficit, which was at 104.4 billion euros in 2024. Higher revenues create room for debt reduction or investments in infrastructure and energy transition, especially in the context of discussions around a flexibilization of the debt brake.
Implications for Monetary Policy and Investors
| Fiscal Option | Monetary Response | Investor Relevance |
|---|---|---|
| Debt Reduction | Interest rate hikes less likely | Government bond yields stable |
| Stimulus via Spending | ECB may remain restrictive longer (inflation risk) | Stock markets benefit from growth impulses |
The paradoxical increase in tax revenues despite economic weakness raises questions about sustainability: While wage dynamics and import taxes have short-term effects, structural factors such as bracket creep or changed consumption patterns may play a role. For portfolio managers, the combination of expansive fiscal policy and a cautious ECB stance remains a central observation point, particularly regarding real interest rates and sector allocation, such as infrastructure assets.