The current developments in tax revenues show a remarkable dynamics that could have relevant implications for savers and investors. In March 2025, tax revenues from the federal and state levels recorded a record increase.
Detailed Tax Development
In March 2025, tax revenues rose by 11.1% to 86 billion Euros compared to the same month last year. The total for the first quarter shows a plus of 9.5% (222 billion Euros). The main drivers of this development are:
- Income tax: Disproportionate increase due to contractual wage increases.
- Value-added tax: +16% due to increased retail sales (+3.5%) and imports (+8.7%).
Long-term Trends
The total revenue in 2024 amounted to 947.7 billion Euros (+3.5%). Distributed as follows:
| Recipient | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Federal | 374.9 billion € | +5.3% |
| States | 394.8 billion € | +3.2% |
| Municipalities | 145.5 billion € | +1.4% |
Economic Context
Despite the IMF’s forecast of a stagnating German economy for 2025, several factors indicate structural resilience:
- Labor market stability: No significant drop in employment despite economic weakness.
- Import growth: Import turnover tax increased by almost 19%.
Impact on Investment Policy
The BMF sees opportunities in utilizing the higher tax revenues: potential for accelerated infrastructure projects through the federal increase (+5.3%) and room for innovation-promoting measures in key areas such as the energy transition or digitization.
Of interest to investors is the expected stabilization of public investments. The discrepancy between rising tax revenues and weak GDP growth raises questions about sustainability. The May tax estimate will provide decisive indications.