Affected Industries and Regional Focus
- Automotive Industry: Since April 3, 2025, 25% special tariffs apply to cars from the EU, and from May onwards, also to auto parts. Southern Germany, with locations such as Stuttgart (Daimler, Porsche) and Munich (BMW), is particularly exposed.
- Steel and Aluminum Sector: Already subjected to 25% tariffs since March 2025. Suppliers in Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria could be indirectly affected.
- Logistics Sector: Shares of Hapag-Lloyd (-7.8%) and Deutsche Post (-4–8%) have already shown significant losses, which could jeopardize jobs in logistics centers such as Frankfurt or Nuremberg in the long term.
Economic Consequences
- Stock Market Reactions: The DAX lost over 500 points (2%), with export-heavy companies crashing harder.
- Price Effects: According to DIW economist Marcel Fratzscher, direct consumer impacts remain limited, but in the medium term, the following threaten:
- Production relocations
- Margin pressure on manufacturers
- Decline in export orders
Strategic Implications for Investors
| Risk Factor | Action Option |
|---|---|
| Sectoral Concentration | Diversification into less tariff-burdened industries |
| Currency Volatility | Hedging against EUR/USD fluctuations |
| Political Escalation Risk | Monitoring EU countermeasures |
Fratzscher emphasizes the need for a clear European response: Enforcement of competition rules for US digital companies and coordinated countermeasures could limit escalations. It will be crucial for Southern Germany’s industry to see whether the EU can unlock alternative markets through targeted subsidies or trade agreements with third countries.