Market Imbalance with Explosive Dynamics
The supply deficit is worsening according to the World Nuclear Association due to a projected demand increase of 28% by 2030. At the same time, global stockpiles have fallen to below 3% of demand – a level that experts classify as critical. Production is lagging behind: Even at prices of $60-65 per pound (April 2025), investments in new mine projects are lacking.
Geopolitical Two-Class Society
The new East-West conflict is dividing the market:
- Western uranium (Canada/Australia) could command premiums in the future, as only two Western countries are among the top-10 producers.
- Import dependencies, especially for the USA (26% from Canada), increase the pressure on domestic projects.
- China’s expansion course (26 nuclear power plants under construction, another 41 planned) further drives demand.
Price Scenarios Between Correction and Rally
Despite the current correction of over $100 (February 2024) to ~60-65 USD/pound, forecasts indicate:
| Scenario | Price Target | Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Base Forecast | $90–100 | Structural Deficit |
| Bull Case | $150–200 | Geopolitical Escalation + Supply Shortages |
The RSI of ~37 for uranium stocks indicates moderately oversold conditions – a potential entry point for long-term positioning.
Strategic Opportunities Map for Investors
- Physical ETFs: Benefit directly from the price surge without mining risk.
- US Mining Stocks: Favored by Trump’s “Energy Dominance” strategy and potential import tariffs.
- Exploration Companies: High-risk, but with multiplier potential upon discovery announcements.
The current volatility masks the fundamental undervaluation: The window for entry is closing with every new reactor project in emerging markets and every tightening of sanctions against Russia/Kazakhstan.