Technical Classification of the Current Rally
The DAX has moved into an impulsive purple 3 after completing the purple 2 at 11,807 points (currently up to 23,477 points), with a target corridor between 16,297 and 25,634 points. The recent move beyond the 22,400/22,500 point mark suggests a continuation of this pattern.
Key Phases of the Counting Method
- Orange Wave Structure:
- Orange 1: Completed at 16,537
- Orange 2: Correction down to 14,585 (below the Fibonacci 38% target at 14,730)
- Orange 3: Current rise to at least 23,477, potentially higher
- Green Subwaves: Within the orange wave, sub-impulses are showing a green wave-3 movement up to the current high.
Market Drivers and Perspectives
Surpassing psychologically significant levels such as the 22k mark signals:
- 🟢 Increased momentum from institutional buying
- 🔄 Portfolio rebalancing before quarter-end
- 📈 Technical follow-through after breakout
Relevant for investors are particularly:
| Aspect | Details |
|---|---|
| Short-term Goals | Testing resistances around orange/b-lines in higher time frames |
| Risk Management | Watch for pullbacks to green wave-4 as entry opportunities |
| Long-term Forecast | Reaching the upper target area (~25k) with the continuation of the momentum pattern |
Critical Evaluation Points
The Elliott Wave analysis points to several interpretative variants for the current orange wave-3, with some counting methods already nearing validity limits. This underscores the need for additional confirmation signals such as:
- Volume expansions during upward movements
- Sector rotation towards cyclical stocks
For German-speaking investors, it remains crucial whether the momentum carries beyond April – historically a volatile month for European indices.