Introduction to the NFP Data for April 2025
The release of the US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data for April 2025, showing an increase of 177,000 jobs, highlights the continued robustness of the US labor market and has had immediate effects on the currency markets. Despite revision-related adjustments – the figures for February and March were lowered by a total of 58,000 – the data reflects a stable employment trend, prompting investors to solidify expectations of a longer restrictive monetary policy from the Fed.
Context of the NFP Data
- April Figures: The increase of 177,000 is slightly below the revised March value of 185,000, yet remains within a moderate but sustainable growth pattern.
- Working Hours: The average weekly working time in manufacturing fell slightly to 40.0 hours, while overtime remained unchanged at 2.9 hours.
- Regional Differences: Metropolitan areas such as Coeur d’Alene (ID) reported an increase of 4.6%, while Yuma (AZ) recorded a decline of 4.8%.
Market Reaction of the Euro
The strength of the US labor market bolstered the dollar against the euro through the following mechanisms:
- Interest Rate Expectations: Strong employment figures reduce the likelihood of quick interest rate cuts by the Fed and increase the attractiveness of dollar-based investments.
- Risk Aversion: Higher interest rate forecasts can direct capital flows into the USD, especially when European data (e.g., weak PMIs or inflation signals) weigh on the euro.
Historical Comparison and Benchmarks
According to Forex Factory, previous NFP figures for March were revised to +185K (originally +228K), indicating that revision factors can regularly disrupt market forecasts. The April figure of 177K falls within consensus expectations (~170–190K) but was sufficient to trigger intraday corrections in the EUR/USD.