In Europe, the European Central Bank and leading economic research institutes have revised their growth forecasts for the Eurozone, now expecting only a 0.9 percent GDP increase for 2025. Simultaneously, the ZEW economic sentiment index significantly declined in April 2025, indicating a more pessimistic outlook on economic development. The declining inflation expectations combined with weaker growth pose new challenges for monetary policymakers. In global markets, escalating trade conflicts between the US and China currently dominate, leading to significant losses. The S&P 500 and US high-yield bonds experienced their steepest weekly decline since the onset of the pandemic in 2020, while profit growth forecasts for the S&P 500 have been reduced to about nine percent for 2025. Short-term safe assets like US Treasury bonds are currently in demand among investors. In the mortgage sector, a sideways movement in interest rates is expected, with projected rates between three and three and a half percent in the first half of 2025. Experts believe this trend provides planning security, although short-term fluctuations are possible. Overall, the economic landscape remains characterized by cautious economic development in Europe, global uncertainties, and stable conditions for mortgage financing.
02.05.2025