Bitcoin Shows Remarkable Recovery Since April 2025
Bitcoin has significantly recovered since April 2025, after finding a stable bottom at around 74,000 USD. This recovery led to a rise in the mid-90,000s range. At the beginning of May, the price was noted at around 95,000–97,406 USD. Technical analyses indicate a breakout from an ascending triangle pattern, suggesting that further gains up to 106,000 USD and beyond are possible.
Key Factors for the Current Rally
- Technical Support: The 50- and 200-day moving averages (SMAs) serve as dynamic support, confirming the bullish trend.
- Institutional Demand: Goldman Sachs has reportedly increased its Bitcoin holdings, underscoring confidence from institutional investors.
- Post-Halving Effect: Historical cycles suggest that the Bitcoin halving in April 2024 promotes long-term price increases, which are now apparent in the price dynamics.
Forecasts for May–December 2025
Current models show diverging scenarios:
| Source | May Forecast | Year-End Forecast | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Libertex/DigitalCoinPrice | ~73,584–180,140 USD | ~123,408 USD | Conservative growth |
| BTC-Echo Model | – | Up to 351,046 USD | Exponential adoption |
| Market Tech | Breakout to 106k–108k USD | All-time high test (109k+) possible |
The return of FOMO is intensified by the renewed test of the all-time high just below 110,000 USD, which could fuel speculation about a “parabolic phase”.
Risks and Critical Perspectives
Despite the optimism, Longforecast warns of possible pullbacks in spring 2025, with fluctuations between 52,695 and 73,202 USD. Macroeconomic factors such as interest rate decisions or regulatory developments remain crucial uncertainties.
For investors, the current phase is critical: Holding above the psychologically important level of 100k USD could attract additional capital in the short term, while failure to do so would suggest corrections down to the SMA support near (~85k–90k USD).