The DAX currently demonstrates remarkable resilience near its record levels, despite the uncertainties caused by US tariffs. Here detailed analysis:
Current Market Dynamics
- Resilience Despite Tariffs: The index was last noted in the range of 22,000–23,000 points, with the recent high surpassing 23,000 points. The “tariff dip” seems largely balanced.
- Short-Term Fluctuations: For May 2025, sources forecast an opening value around 22,497–22,649 points with a range between ~21,222 and 24,416 points. The end of the month could lie at ~22,819 (+0.8%).
“Sell in May” Strategy in Context
Historically, the seasonal weakness period from May to October is known; however, current factors mitigate this:
- Technical Chart Picture:
- Support Zones: Critical levels at 20,522 (mid-term) and 17,003 (long-term).
- Trend Confirmation: As long as the DAX remains above the psychologically important 20k mark, the upward scenario remains intact.
- Fundamental Drivers:
- ECB Interest Rate Policy: Dovish signals could support liquidity.
- Corporate Earnings: German exporting companies benefit from a weaker Euro.
Forecasts for 2025 and Beyond
- Moderate Upward Dynamics: WalletInvestor expects predominantly positive trends with fluctuations in 2025, while kursprognose.com sees a monthly high of up to ~24k in May.
- Long-Term Outlook:
- An increase to ~23k–25k is projected by September 2025.
- The long-term target until 2050 is around 100k points, based on the logarithmic trend channel since the early 2000s – provided the index stays above the support at ~16k (2023 level).
Risks & Recommendations
| Factor | Assessment |
|---|---|
| US Tariffs | Short-term source of volatility, but already priced in? |
| Global Recession Risks | Moderate impact on export-oriented DAX |
| Technical Overheating | Watch RSI near key levels |
For investors: A blanket “Sell in May” is not necessarily advisable given the intact trend – instead, tactical position adjustments should occur based on individual risk tolerance. Stop-Loss Recommendation: Caution is advised if breaking below the April lows (~20.6k). Opportunity Side: A breakout above the all-time high (~23.5k) could attract new buyers.
The overall source situation shows a cautiously optimistic basic mood with a focus on technical key levels as a decision-making basis.