Strong Potential Despite Corrections
The Novo Nordisk stock continues to show strong potential despite recent corrections, particularly due to its dominant position in the GLP-1 market for diabetes and obesity.
Current Valuation and Analyst Assessments
- Fair Value: Morningstar rates the stock with a 4-star rating as undervalued, with a 30% discount to the fair value of 640 DKK.
- Price Targets: The average analyst target is at 729.58 DKK, suggesting significant growth potential from the current level of approximately 424.35 DKK.
- Recommendations: 14 out of 19 experts recommend buying, reflecting a stable buy trend over the past six months.
Growth Drivers
- GLP-1 Market: By 2031, a market share of 75 billion USD for Novo Nordisk in the global GLP-1 market is forecasted, especially thanks to Semaglutide (Ozempic/Wegovy), whose patent expires only in 2032.
- Revenue Forecast: A currency-adjusted revenue growth of 16–24% is expected for the current year, supported by a five-year forecast of 14% revenue and 16% profit growth by 2029.
Risks and Regulatory Influences
- Inflation Reduction Act: US revenues could decline by 3% due to the Medicare inflation cap, with price negotiations for Ozempic/Rybelsus potentially starting in 2027.
- Competition: Eli Lilly is viewed as the main competitor in the GLP-1 sector, which could exert long-term pressure on margins.
Technical Perspective
According to kursprognose.com, the stock could rise to about 170 USD by May/June, although macroeconomic factors could cause some volatility.
Overall, Novo Nordisk remains a key player in the structurally growing obesity/diabetes market despite regulatory challenges – with clear upside potential according to analyst consensus.