Market Development and Economic Context
Despite mixed macroeconomic data, global stock markets continue their upward trend unabated. The US earnings season peaked in weeks 18-19, with results from large capitalization companies significantly contributing to stability. In Europe, GDP growth for 2025 is expected to be moderate at +1%, while the US is struggling with weaker economic conditions (-0.3% in the preliminary estimate).
Drivers of Optimism
- Tariff Relief: Speculation about reduced US auto tariffs alleviated trade conflicts and supported risk appetite.
- ECB Interest Rate Policy: Expected interest cuts of up to 100 basis points by the end of 2025 (starting in June) will reduce capital costs and support corporate profits.
- S&P-500 Forecasts: Goldman Sachs projects a rise to 6,500 points by the end of 2025, driven by moderate profit growth and stable yields – despite event risks such as universal tariffs or rising bond yields.
Risks and Challenges
- Trade Policy: Unfinalized tariff agreements pose uncertainty; already priced-in expectations could be corrected if disappointments occur.
- Sectoral Shifts: The dominance of the “Magnificent Seven” (Tech giants) is expected to weaken further (+7% outperformance vs. S&P rest), which requires broader market participation.
Strategic Recommendations for Investors
- M&A-driven Stocks: Companies are expected to benefit from a revival of acquisition activities under new US government policy.
- SME Focus: Small and medium-sized enterprises could benefit from local economic impulses, especially in tariff-sensitive sectors.
The current phase underscores the necessity of selective allocation while considering macroeconomic leading indicators such as interest rate decisions and trade data.