The current rally has driven the DAX over 23,000 points, with the recovery after the “Liberation Day dip” described as particularly dynamic – over 4,000 points in less than four weeks. The proximity to the record high of 23,476 points remains in focus, however, the X-DAX indicated a slight decrease of 0.15% to 23,309 points on the morning of May 6.
Key Dates and Forecasts
- Industrial Orders (May 7): Commerzbank expects an increase of 1.5% compared to February, also for the core component excluding large orders.
- US Interest Rate Decision (May 7): The Fed is expected to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 4.25–4.5% – despite political pressure from the White House.
- Industrial Production/Exports Germany (May 8): DekaBank points to brought-forward US imports for circumvention of tariffs, which supported GDP growth in Q1 and boosted March exports.
Risks and Opportunities for Investors
Commerzbank sees a investment opportunity in possible pullbacks due to trade conflicts if Trump acts as a “deal maker”. At the same time, analysts warn of an “overheated” recovery rally: A rapid return to record highs is considered unlikely despite positive economic signals.
Implications for Private Investors
The focus is on three aspects:
- Monetary Policy: The Fed’s commitment to higher interest rates could temporarily increase volatility, but signal stability in the long term.
- Trade Dynamics: Brought-forward deliveries and tariff strategies could continue to shape seasonal effects in export data – relevant for sectors like machinery or chemicals.
- Technical Market Analysis: The DAX shows momentum but needs clear impulses (e.g., agreement in the US trade dispute) to sustainably break record levels.
For savers, this means balancing between short-term profit-taking and long-term positioning in tariff-resistant sectors such as technology or healthcare.