Market Development Under Trump (As of April 2025)
- Tariff Policy as a Main Driver: The announcement of global additional tariffs triggered a stock market crash, the subsequent partial reversal catapulted indices such as the Dow Jones (+7.87%), S&P 500 (+9.52%), and Nasdaq 100 (+12.02%) upwards within a day.
- China’s Special Role: While tariffs were paused for many countries, duties on Chinese goods rose to 125% – a clear focus on the tech and trade conflict.
- Fed Pressure: Trump called for interest rate cuts to stabilize the markets, which could favor growth values in the long term.
Potential Winning Stocks
Technology Sector
Despite China’s tariffs, US tech companies with local production (e.g., semiconductor manufacturers) benefit from protectionist measures. The Nasdaq rally of 12% indicates short-term momentum.
Defensive Consumer Goods
In the face of ongoing recession fears, companies with stable cash flow structures (e.g., staples, pharmaceuticals) may gain attractiveness.
Infrastructure & Energy
Trump’s historical focus on infrastructure projects and fossil energies remains a key theme – relevant construction and oil companies are in focus.
Critical Losing Sectors
| Category | Risks | Examples |
|---|---|---|
| Global Tech Firms | Higher production costs due to China tariffs | Apple supply chain operators |
| Export-dependent Industries | Competitive disadvantages due to general 10% import tariffs | Automobile suppliers |
| Highly Indebted Companies | Endangered by potential interest rate turnaround in government bond sales | Real estate REITs |
Strategic Recommendations for the Webinar
- Short-Term Trading: Utilize volatility through news-driven price fluctuations (e.g., intraday rally on 09.04.).
- Sector Rotation: Reallocate to tariff-resistant sectors with a local value chain.
- Emerging Markets Exception: Identify countries with bilateral trade agreements as indirect beneficiaries of the US-China conflict.
Note: The current development underscores the necessity of micro-founded individual analysis – blanket sector bets carry increased risks due to Trump’s unpredictable political dynamics.