The thesis that US bonds and the US dollar are still considered a “safe haven” despite numerous discussions is currently the subject of intense debates. However, recent developments show that this image is increasingly cracking – particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions, trade conflicts, and fiscal challenges.
Current Developments and Risks
- Trade Wars and Tariff Policy: The tariff policy of the USA under President Trump has unsettled the markets. Rising yields on US government bonds (e.g., 10-year Treasuries from 4.29% to 4.37%) suggest that investors are reassessing the risk. Higher yields mean lower prices – a sign of waning confidence in the safety of these investments.
- Recession Risk: The likelihood of a recession in the USA is estimated at 40–50%. In such phases, investors usually seek refuge in safe havens like government bonds. Paradoxically, however, yields are currently rising (and thus the risk), indicating uncertainty.
- Budget Deficits and Political Uncertainty: The budget situation in the USA is deteriorating: deficits are increasing, interest costs are rising, and political blockades are hampering reforms to stabilize the budget.
Status Quo: Demand Remains High – But Why?
Despite these challenges, demand for US bonds at auctions remains consistently high. Reasons for this include:
- Institutional Stability: Stable institutions like an independent central bank (Fed) and a trustworthy legal framework strengthen the confidence of international investors.
- Market Liquidity: The market for US Treasuries is the largest and most liquid bond market in the world.
- Lack of Alternatives: Despite all criticisms, many global investors see no equivalent alternatives to the dollar or US government bonds.
Critical Voices
However, experts warn of a mirage: “The alleged safety of US government bonds is turning out to be an illusion in light of the tariff policy.” Political volatility (e.g., through public attacks against the Fed or the use of financial sanctions) is increasingly undermining trust in the dollar as a neutral currency.
Conclusion for Savers and Private Investors
While US bonds remain an important part of many portfolios – particularly due to their liquidity and institutional backing – savers and private investors should not blindly rely on their presumed safety:
- Consider Risks: Rising yields can mean both opportunities and risks.
- Check Diversification: In turbulent times, aiming for broader diversification is advisable.
- Monitor Market Trends: Political decisions (tariffs, sanctions) can have significant short-term impacts on price developments.
Summary: Despite ongoing demand, the status of US bonds as a safe haven is more under debate than ever. Private investors should therefore remain vigilant and regularly review their strategies.